IT'S the start of a world-changing political marathon, the like of which has never been seen before. Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama this weekend left their respective conventions behind, with the nominations of their parties under their belts, their running mates in harness and their fingers crossed.
What lies ahead is a slugfest; a bruising battle spanning all 50 states in which the two candidates and their proxies will appear at town hall meetings and TV studios, and clash in a series of engagements ahead of the November 4 election.
These st
art on September 26, when McCain and Obama face each other at the first 2008 presidential debate at the University of Mississippi. More than 70 million Americans are expected to tune in to watch the televised debate on domestic policy.
The presidential debates are the centrepiece of popular American democracy. Nearly 63 million people watched George W Bush debate John Kerry in 2004. The pundits may have been wrangling over the relative merits of the candidates for what seems like an eternity but for the public, the election starts here.
"The debates are very important," said Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institute. "Most Americans haven't been paying much attention so far but the debates are watched by tens of millions of people and give them the opportunity to see the candidates engaging with the issues that matter most to them."
For once, the vice presidential debate on October 2 will be just as closely watched. Sarah Palin proved herself a doughty fighter at the Republican Convention and the party machine hopes that the "pit bull in lipstick" will sink her fangs into the calves of Joe Biden. The debate will span foreign and domestic policy, and Biden could well show up Palin's inexperience in this area. But the fact that Palin is a woman brings its own problems; if Biden goes after her too strongly, the Democrat vice-presidential hopeful could come across as a bully; too soft and he risks sounding patronising or weak.
"It's a difficult balancing act to go after a woman, and Biden will have to be careful of that in their debate," says Elaine Kamarck, professor of politics at the Harvard Kennedy School and a former adviser to Al Gore and Bill Clinton.
During the next 58 days, Palin will also be tested in a wider electoral arena as she is introduced to the American public in a series of town hall meetings and TV interviews.
Will she be able to build on the bravura performance which wowed Republicans at the national convention? Or, without the aid of President Bush's scriptwriter, will she flounder?
The second presidential debate takes place on October 7 at Belmont University, Nashville, Tennessee, taking the format of a town hall meeting; with the final debate on foreign policy taking place on October 15, at Hofstra University, New York.
The conventions have clarified the distinct strategies being pursued by the parties.
The Democrats feel that they can nail the Republicans on policy: as the American economy slips into recession, they will hammer the Republicans' economic record; as the war in Iraq grinds on they will try to tie McCain to Bush's unpopular foreign policy.
The battle on the economy was emphasised by last week's news that unemployment in the US has risen again, to 6.1%.
"From now until the election, the Democrats will speak about the McCain-Bush administration at every turn," said Professor John G Geer of Vanderbilt University.
The economy is a major test of the Democrats' strategy. If they can't win the election in the teeth of a recession and an unpopular foreign war, then Democrat insiders will pour over the entrails of this election for years to come.
"Obama has to convince America that he can pull the country out of the economic doldrums; McCain has to convince America that he is not George Bush," said Kamarck.
For Republicans, the election is about two things: stealing the Democrats' mantra of 'change' and attacking the personality of their opponent. The selection of Palin, whose scornful, withering attack on Obama was one of the highlights of her speech, signals what is to come.
In his rather less exciting convention speech, McCain made it clear that he views Obama as an opponent rather than an enemy, and went out of his way to indicate his respect for him. Palin clearly thinks Obama is too pompous and intellectual to get elected, and her approach opens up a new and visceral battle line in the election.
"It will be a bruising battle," said Mann. "Palin has demonstrated that she is a pit bull and that she is prepared to use scorn, irony, to ridicule and attack. There is going to be nothing nice about the fight in the weeks ahead."
Accusations about Obama's patriotism, inexperience and personal ego will fly for the next 58 days.
As soon as the red, white and blue ticker tape settled on the last night of the Republican convention, and just hours after his speech, McCain and Palin boarded their campaign plane to take them on a tour of crucial swing states.
From here on in, they and Obama and Biden will spend their days visiting factories, community centres and church halls to address voters in the swing states, which will decide the 2008 election.
This year, more states than usual will come into play as both sides attempt to redraw the electoral map.
In their approach to the state by state battle, the parties are following different strategies. McCain is focusing on winning back the states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire that were lost to Democratic presidential hopeful Kerry in 2004.
Obama's strategy follows on from the Primaries: he targets everyone and doesn't just aim for the big prizes like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This chimes with his message of reaching out to everyone, but it has a literal cost: the Obama campaign is outspending McCain on advertising in swing states.
Certain states clearly have the potential to change the outcome of this election. With a high percentage of blue-collar, socially conservative "Reagan Democrats", Ohio will be especially interesting to watch this year.
"Obama must convince them that he understands not just their economic woes but also their social values; Palin's folksy charms could be deployed here for the Republicans to devastating effect.
If Obama is to succeed in his aim of returning the South to the Democrats, Virginia is key to the strategy. Local Democrats have experienced a resurgence in the state, with Democrat Senator Jim Webb returned there in 2006.
New Mexico will also be one to watch. The state, which borders McCain's Arizona, went to Gore in 2000 and to Bush in 2004. McCain's policy on the status of illegal immigrants is important here given the proximity to the Mexican border.
Other traditional battleground states include Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan, badly hit by the economic downturn. Polls currently indicate that Florida will go to McCain while Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Less than two months to decide the result of the election, and the only thing that both Republicans and Democrats can agree on is that there is everything to play for.
Where Obama and McCain stand on key issues
ABORTIONMcCain: Opposes abortion rights. Would not seek constitutional amendment to ban abortion.
Obama: Favours abortion rights.
AFGHANISTANMcCain: Favours unspecified boost in US forces.
Obama: Would add about 7,000 troops to the US force of 36,000, bringing the reinforcements from Iraq. Has threatened unilateral attack on high-value terrorist targets in Pakistan as they become exposed.
DEATH PENALTYMcCain: Has supported expansion of the federal death penalty and limits on appeals.
Obama: Supports death penalty for crimes for which the "community is justified in expressing the full measure of its outrage".
GAY MARRIAGEMcCain: Opposes constitutional amendment to ban it. Says same-sex couples should be allowed to enter into legal agreements for insurance and similar benefits, and that states should decide about marriage.
Obama: Opposes constitutional amendment to ban it. Supports civil unions, says states should decide about marriage.
GLOBAL WARMINGMcCain: Broke with Bush on global warming. Led Senate effort to cap greenhouse gas emissions; favours tougher fuel-efficiency standards. Favours plan that would see greenhouse gas emissions cut by 60% by 2050.
Obama: Ten-year, $150bn programme to produce "climate friendly" energy supplies that he'd pay for with a carbon auction requiring businesses to bid competitively for the right to pollute and aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050. Joined McCain in sponsoring earlier legislation that would set mandatory caps on greenhouse gas emissions. Supports tougher fuel-efficiency standards.
GUN CONTROLMcCain: Voted against ban on assault-type weapons but in favour of requiring background checks at gun shows. Voted to shield gun-makers and dealers from civil suits. "I believe the Second Amendment ought to be preserved – which means no gun control."
Obama: Voted to leave gun-makers and dealers open to lawsuit. Also, as Illinois state lawmaker, supported ban on all forms of semi-automatic weapons and tighter state restrictions generally on firearms.
IRANMcCain: Favours tougher sanctions, opposes direct high-level talks with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Obama: Initially said he would meet Ahmadinejad without preconditions. He now says he's not sure but says direct diplomacy with Iranian leaders would give US more credibility to press for tougher international sanctions.
IRAQ
McCain: Opposes scheduling a troop withdrawal, saying latest strategy is succeeding.
Obama: Spoke against war at start, opposed troop increase. Voted against one major military spending bill in May 2007; otherwise voted in favour of money to support the war. Says his plan would complete withdrawal of combat troops in 16 months.
STEM CELL RESEARCHMcCain: Supports relaxing federal restrictions on financing of embryonic stem cell research.
Obama: Supports relaxing federal restrictions on financing of embryonic stem cell research.
TAXESMcCain: Pledged not to raise taxes, then equivocated, saying nothing can be ruled out in negotiating compromises to keep Social Security solvent.
Obama: Raise income taxes on wealthiest and their capital gains and dividends taxes. Raise corporate taxes. $80 billion in tax breaks mainly for poor workers and elderly.
Head to headMcCain v Obama TV debatesSeptember 26, October 7 and 15
Palin v BidenOctober 2
Election DayNovember 4
$10mMoney said to have been raised by Obama's campaign on Thursday following the Republican National Convention speech by Palin. The Republican National Committee said it had raised well in excess of $1m.
Source: AP
The full article contains 1772 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
