THE number of young Scots entering university has dropped for the first time in five years - fresh evidence that the trend of record increases in students over recent years may have ended.
Figures compiled by UCAS, the universities admissions body, showed that 26,494 students from Scotland have been accepted for courses starting next week.
That is at least 300 fewer than last year, when a record 26,802 students gained higher educat
ion places.
While the drop is small, experts said it may signal the start of a trend - the result of Scotland's population crisis and increased competition for places from students from the rest of the UK.
That pressure will only increase next year when top-up fees are introduced south of the Border, handing students bills of up to £3,000 a year. However, in Scotland, the fees will not apply. There are warnings that so-called 'fee refugees' will flood northwards in a bid to avoid the payments.
Next year's introduction of top-up fees has already had a marked effect on the student population, according to the figures.
They show record increases in the number of English, Welsh and Northern Irish youngsters going to universities across the UK, as thousands of students rush to avoid the fees they would have to pay if they delayed until 2006.
The knock-on effects for Scotland were marked. The number of English students gaining places in Scotland rose by 5% to 4,266.
Added to this, there is a massive rise in the number of foreign students. The number of EU students rose by 20% to 1,598 while non-EU foreign students went up by 10% to 1,926.
University principals have reported growing competition for places this year. Glasgow Caledonian University, for example, has had to reject more applicants this year than usual.
Robin McAlpine, spokesman for Universities Scotland, said: "The rise in the number of English students taking up places is 100% down to fee avoidance.
"There has been a small drop in the number of Scottish students but I am amazed that we have seen the rate of increase in recent years.
"We have had 2%-3% rises every year up until now. All that has now happened is that we are down to the record figure of a couple of years ago.
"I suspect demographics have something to do with it as well. Numbers of young people are starting to drop off," he added.
Ministers have already moved to try to pre-empt the expected flood of English students heading north next year to avoid paying fees south of the Border.
Students from England already have to pay an up-front sum of £1,200 if they want to study at a Scottish university. It will now rise to £1,700.
For medical students heading north from England, the up-front fee will be £2,700 to take account of the fierce demand for places at Scottish medical schools, where the ratio of applications to acceptances is around 10:1, compared with the UK average of 3:1.
The moves have been attacked by the Scottish National Party, which last week proposed to scrap all fees and reintroduce student grants in Scotland.
A Scottish Executive spokeswoman played down the drop in the number of Scottish students entering university.
She said: "At just under 50%, Scottish participation in higher education is very high and we remain strongly supportive of the higher education sector and are committed to supporting students."
