CARLSBERG may have to find a further £1bn if it is to acquire brewery rival Scottish & Newcastle.
Analysts say the 720p a share offer values S&N's half-stake in Baltic Beverages Holding, their Russian joint venture, at £3.4bn - a billion pounds short of its true worth.
The figures will be seen as a vindication of S&N's claim that the Danes, t
ogether with Dutch giant Heineken, are trying to acquire BBH "on the cheap".
There is a growing view among analysts that Carlsberg has bungled the approach, which is also drawing critical comment in Copenhagen. S&N described the offer as derisory and the two partners are now talking only at an operational level.
BBH is at the centre of the bid battle and under an unusual 'shotgun' clause an offer by one partner triggers an opportunity for the other to buy the other one out at the same price.
Lawyers are studying the ramifications of Carlsberg's action and although S&N is not believed to be considering any immediate step, the Carlsberg move and valuation on BBH may have provided ammunition for a third party to look at making an approach to S&N to forge a new partnership.
Analysts say any deal put together by S&N would most likely involve a partner bankrolling the acquisition of Carlsberg's BBH stake.
Last night S&N declined to comment on the continuing speculation but it is believed SAB Miller or Anheuser-Busch would be the most likely contenders if a new partner was sought. There is also the outside possibility of a tie-up with a Russian oligarch.
Simon Hales, drinks analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort, said: "You can't rule it out. There are some very wealthy people in Russia and this is a great cash cow. But from S&N's point of view they will be looking for a stable partner rather than tying themselves in with someone who is in Putin's pocket."
Analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort have estimated S&N's 50% stake in BBH to be worth £4.4bn. But on Thursday the chief executives of the Danish and Dutch brewers delivered to S&N chairman Sir Brian Stewart an informal bid letter valuing the brewer at £6.8bn. According to analysts this puts a value on S&N's BBH share at just £3.4bn and they believe an offer of at least 800p or £7.6bn would be required to acquire the whole of S&N. Its shares closed at 759.5p, indicating that a higher offer is expected.
Stewart will sit down with his board and weigh up the options this week. One potential pitfall he will want to avoid is the possibility of a new partner, either SABMiller or Anheuser-Busch, buying the Carlsberg stake and then mounting a subsequent bid for the whole of S&N. Analysts say this would make more sense for SABMiller which could sell off the UK, Belgium and Finnish businesses to Heineken while looking to dispose of the French operations to InBev, thus giving them complete control of BBH.
But Anheuser-Busch, still a family-run firm, is also believed to be particularly interested in S&N. The Edinburgh brewer would dramatically boost AB's share of the profitable European beer industry while establishing it as a key player within the crucial Russian market.
The full article contains 565 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
