Analysis: Will Peter Murrell bombshell add to Humza Yousaf’s woes?

The SNP's problems ‘go way beyond the financial allegations’, experts say

In the words of polling expert Sir John Curtice, Humza Yousaf’s administration has suffered from a bit of a “reverse Midas touch”. It has, to put it mildly, been a tough year.

Insiders now fear the bombshell news about Peter Murrell will further harm support for a party that has been struggling to regain its lost momentum.

Mr Murrell, 59, the former chief executive of the SNP and husband of Nicola Sturgeon, was an integral part of the Nationalist operation for more than two decades. His formidable backroom skills helped it to become the dominant force in Scottish politics.

Former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, pictured arriving home, has been charged in connection with embezzlement of SNP funds following a police investigation into the party's finances. Photo: John Devlin

The announcement that he had been charged with the alleged embezzlement of SNP funds sent shockwaves through Holyrood. One MSP told The Scotsman the mood in the SNP is gloomy and confused. “I don't think we can really say that people are wrong to lose trust and confidence,” they said.

Sir John, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said the party’s problems “go way beyond the financial allegations”.

He said: “Support for the SNP fell quite heavily during the leadership contest. It’s fallen again quite recently in the polls, when the financial allegations have been nowhere near the press at all. It’s much bigger.

"Yousaf is not terribly popular. He’s not widely regarded as being particularly competent. The SNP are divided. And the record in Government. These are much more traditional political problems, but they’re also much more fundamental.”

He said the first time Mr Murrell was arrested, in April last year, it had “no impact” on opinion polls, unlike the arrest of his wife a couple of months later. Ms Sturgeon was released without charge on the same day.

“Despite all the terrible optics of Peter Murrell’s arrest 12 months ago, it made no difference to the level of SNP support in the opinion polls,” Sir John said. “The arrest of Sturgeon did – the arrest of Sturgeon saw support for the SNP fall by a couple of points. But the arrest of Murrell and the dramatic pictures that produced – no impact.”

However, he said there was now “a question of timing” over any potential legal proceedings.

Mark Diffley, director of the Diffley Partnership polling company, said: "If it ends up in legal proceedings that kind of drag on for a long time, coinciding potentially with an election campaign, then that just makes life really, really difficult.

"And what we do know is the fall in SNP support that’s happened in the last 18 months or so happened at the same time as Sturgeon resigned, Humza came in and Operation Branchform [the police investigation] was front and centre headline news.”

He said Mr Yousaf had inherited a “pretty torrid” legacy, adding: "Will he ever be able to put the past behind him and move on? It feels as if that’s not going to happen any time soon. Which is not to say that he hasn’t also made mistakes as well along the way, of course, but it does feel that he’s had a really tough, difficult legacy to deal with.”

Mr Diffley continued: "It seems like every potential opportunity that he might get to reset, something from the past comes along to get in the way of that.”

An SNP MSP said there was “no doubt” the police probe had led to a loss of trust in the party. "On a very practical level, who is going to give money to a party whose former chief executive is facing a charge of embezzlement?" they said. "The party is in a sense no longer functioning, in the sense that it can no longer attract donations."

They added: "I wouldn't dream of giving money now to the party. It would be a form of masochism.”

They described the situation as “ the Scottish GUBU”. This is a reference to a well-known acronym in Irish politics, which stands for grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented. It was coined following events in 1982, when double-murderer Malcolm MacArthur was apprehended in the Dublin apartment of Patrick Connolly, who was then attorney general.

A recent poll showed Mr Yousaf’s popularity has dropped, even among SNP voters. Asked about the potential reasons behind this, Sir John said: “Is this a guy who has demonstrated clear strategic direction? Answer: no. Increases one set of taxes and reduces another set of taxes. The truth is the SNP Government at the moment does have a wee bit, seemingly, of a reverse Midas touch.”

He referenced the rows over hate crime, gender reforms and the deposit return scheme. “They cannot stop the mud being stuck on them,” Sir John said. “It does kind of make it difficult for them to say, ‘Listen to us, we are people you should be listening to, we have important things to say.’”

Mr Yousaf said he hoped people would continue to trust the SNP “because of the record of delivery”. Speaking to journalists yesterday, he gave his reaction to what he described as “serious, serious developments”. He said many people in the SNP and right across Scottish politics “will be shocked by the news”.

He stressed the SNP would “allow the police to conduct their inquiries, conclude their inquiries” in what he said was an “ongoing investigation”.

Meanwhile, Mr Yousaf said he is focused on his job as First Minister. “Police, the Crown have a job to do, just as I have a job to do as First Minister,” he said.

“That job, of course, is ensuring that I support business, that I help households throughout the cost-of-living crisis, that I help to cut waiting times in the NHS, that I advance the cause of independence. So that’s the job that you can imagine I’m focused on.”