Who in the SNP could replace Humza Yousaf as First Minister?

With Humza Yousaf’s leadership coming to an end, key figures in the SNP are poised to launch a bid to become Scotland’s next first minister

Humza Yousaf’s resignation has left the door open to his colleagues to replace him as First Minister and leader of the SNP.

Mr Yousaf has quit the top job after a miscalculation in axing the Greens from government backfired, leaving him facing a no confidence vote from MSPs.

Whoever replaces Mr Yousaf will likely need to restore confidence from opposition parties, particularly the Scottish Greens, to get laws and budgets passed – a potential barrier for the much-talked ambitions of Kate Forbes.

John Swinney, Shona Robison, Kate Forbes and Neil Gray are amongst those who could take over from Humza Yousaf

With Mr Yousaf set to leave office after little more than a year, The Scotsman takes a look at some of those likely to be vying to replace him.

The SNP hierarchy can set the process for picking a leader, but may opt to keep it by the book, given the toxic contest last year that included accusations the process was rigged. If figures back just one candidate, such as John Swinney, they would be appointed leader without a contest and a vote by party members.

John Swinney

Mr Swinney would be seen as a ‘safe pair of hands’ to steer the ship as the SNP gets itself in order – some much needed stability as the party braces for what could be a disastrous general election.

Humza Yousaf has faced a turbulent year as First Minister.

He is also distanced from the troubled premiership of Mr Yousaf, having stepped away from the Cabinet after Nicola Sturgeon resigned.

Little more than an hour after Mr Yousaf announced his resignation, Mr Swinney was telling journalists he was “actively considering” running to become the next FM after being flooded with requests from SNP colleagues. It was thought Mr Swinney’s days with frontline politics were behind him, but he could seek a spectacular return to help guide the SNP back on track.

Mr Swinney is set to mull over the decision in the coming days, but could emerge as a frontrunner to enter Bute House. Speculation has mounted that potential leadership candidates, including Neil Gray, would be keen to rally around Mr Swinney if he decides to press ahead with a leadership bid.

Shona Robison

Mr Swinney taking over, even temporarily, would be an embarrassment for deputy first minister Shona Robison.

You would expect Ms Robison, one of the Scottish Government’s most experienced and senior ministers, to take over the helm of the Government as a caretaker. But the toxicity of the past week for Mr Yousaf may put her in too close a position to the First Minister to be considered as a uniting force.

Neil Gray

The health secretary has been quickly bumped up the ranks since moving from Westminster to Holyrood at the 2021 election.

A very close ally of Mr Yousaf, Mr Gray was instrumental in shaping the First Minister’s leadership bid. He could be seen as a safe candidate to steer the SNP to the 2026 Holyrood election and has a reputation for being calm. Some of that might be needed right now.

Mr Gray perhaps lacks the charisma expected of a first minister, but he is highly rated and liked within his party.

Jenny Gilruth

Speculation mounted over the weekend the education secretary was potentially eyeing up a bid for Bute House.

She would be regarded as another continuity candidate to replace the original continuity candidate and regarded as more of the same as Mr Yousaf.

Ms Gilruth has held several key briefs in government, has a strong voice, and is potentially one of few SNP ministers that could win back the trust of the Greens, potentially crucial in keeping the Scottish Government afloat.

Kate Forbes

There is a lot of talk about Kate Forbes, who lost out to Mr Yousaf, vying for Bute House once again.

She may be one who a minority of backbench SNP MSPs would like to see in charge of the Scottish Government, but she faces a huge problem if she wants to give it another go. The Greens will not work with her – Ross Greer said as much on the Holyrood Sources podcast on Friday – and it is no surprise.

During last year’s SNP leadership contest, the Greens warned they would not work with Ms Forbes over her views on gay marriage – a stance that saw many SNP members shy away from backing her. But party members voted in big numbers for her at last year’s election and if members are to choose a new leader, they may opt to put their trust in her this time around.

It is not impossible that Ms Forbes will table another bid for Bute House, but it is extremely unlikely she will be able to form a government that can get anything done.

Angus Robertson

The former SNP Westminster leader stayed out of last year’s leadership contest to replace Ms Sturgeon. Maybe he will sit this one out too, But he could fancy a punt at it.

The culture and external affairs secretary has appeared frustrated at the limitations of his current brief and has few tangible results to show for his time at Holyrood so far. That could change if he turns his attention to Bute House.

He would be regarded as another continuity candidate and it is likely there will only be space for one of those to come forward.

Stephen Flynn

Taking of SNP Westminster leaders, could the current one fancy a switch?

Stephen Flynn was spotted at Holyrood the day before Mr Yousaf acrimoniously and regrettably turfed the Greens out of Bute House.

He would not be able to become first minister immediately, given he does not sit in Holyrood. But a caretaker First Minister could keep his seat warm for 2026. Mt Flynn could lose his seat at the coming Westminster general election and a Holyrood bid to be installed as leader would be quite a leap, even for someone as ambitious as Mr Flynn.