Exclusive:Greens could refuse to prop up Swinney government if he shifts SNP to centre ground

John Swinney may need to reach out to unionist parties if he alienates the Scottish Greens by moving the SNP to the centre-ground.

The Scottish Greens could refuse to support some aspects of a John Swinney government’s policy priorities if he attempts to shift the SNP back towards the centre-ground – leaving his new administration dependent on unionist parties.

Mr Swinney is set to secure the keys to Bute House when nominations close at 12pm on Monday for the SNP leadership when he is expected to be the only name in the running. That essentially makes him the next first minister in waiting after Humza Yousaf’s resignation.

Scottish Greens co-leaders Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie (Photo: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire)

In his pitch to SNP members on Thursday, Mr Swinney pledged to unite his party and strongly hinted at a move away from working closely with the Greens, seen by some as on the far-left, to shifting back to the centre left of Scottish politics.

In his speech in Edinburgh, the former SNP deputy first minister said that “only the SNP stand where the majority of people want their government to be, in the moderate centre-left of Scottish politics”, adding “that is where I stand”.

He said: “If elected by my party and by parliament, my goals as first minister will come straight from that moderate centre-left tradition – the pursuit of economic growth and of social justice.”

That vow was a huge hint that he intends to move away from the SNP being aligned with the Greens, who do not take a traditional approach to economic growth – something the Scottish Government has received criticism for during its co-operation agreement with the Greens.

Fergus Ewing. Picture: PA

In a further veiled dig at policies brought forward in partnership with the Greens to tackle the climate crisis, Mr Swinney insisted that “we need to recognise that the pursuit of net zero has to take people and business with us”.

He added: “When resources are limited, they must be used forensically to make the greatest impact on the challenge we face.”

Yesterday, Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross urged the potential future first minister to rule out a deal with the Scottish Greens, who he called “extreme” and “anti-economic growth”.

It remains unclear whether a key role in Mr Swinney’s Cabinet for Kate Forbes, who the Greens have made no secret they will not work with over her socially conservative views on equalities, would sway their support for the new administration.

The SNP's Kate Forbes is set to be offered a top job in John Swinney's Cabinet (Photo:Jane Barlow/PA Wire)

On Thursday, SNP Net Zero Secretary Mairi McAllan, who introduced Mr Swinney on stage as he launched his leadership bid, confirmed the Scottish Government will not pursue the inclusion of glass bottles in a future deposit return scheme – a key principle sought for by Greens co-leader Lorna Slater, who was previously responsible for the policy.

SNP backbencher Fergus Ewing, a key critic of the Greens and the Bute House Agreement, told The Scotsman that his “message to John Swinney” was to “stop being afraid of and forever pandering to these extremists”.

He added: “The extremist Greens leave a legacy of disaster behind them of dud, damaging policies.

“The SNP Government must now scrap the remaining Green party-inspired policies that would cause even more misery and mayhem such as the heat in buildings bill which would see non-compliant homes becoming unsaleable, and mortgage interest rates in Scotland higher than rest of the UK.”

John Swinney. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Mr Ewing suggested that the Greens “cannot in practice bring down a minority SNP government”, warning that “they would then lose half their vote by infuriating the SNP voters who in the 2021 election gave them their second votes”.

He added: “Their MSPs would then be wiped out. We should simply ignore the Greens. Let them go back to their wine bar to prepare for the revolution.”

But a Scottish Greens source has told The Scotsman that a move to the centre is "what we worried about when Humza ended the Bute House Agreement".

The source added that "some in the SNP appear to be in panic mode about the election, but this just sounds like net zero pledges would get watered down even more".

The Greens insider suggested that the former coalition partners may not back up key priorities if they “do not chime with what our MSPs were elected to fight for”.

The source added: “If the SNP moves too far to the right, they would need to look elsewhere to get their policies and budgets passed. We are not here to simply endorse an SNP minority government.

“John has a history of working with pretty much everyone in government so perhaps he would look to other parties for some things he knows he wouldn’t be keen on. That is up to him.

“The Greens are still committed to the principles that were put into the Bute House Agreement. If the SNP is no longer fussed about them, they will need to think about the support they get for getting things done.”

Polling expert Mark Diffley said that Mr Swinney “has set his stall out quite clearly” on wanting to hone in on core policy areas but warned “that’s easier said than done in a minority government”.

He said: “The whole idea of the Bute House Agreement was to make their lives as easy as possible and they obviously don’t have that kind of benefit anymore.

“There will be more focus on what polling tells us are the key considerations that voters have.

“People want the economy to improve, particularly at a time where people have been and many still are, going through the cost-of-living crisis. They also want to see better public services, most specifically the NHS.”

Mr Diffley said Mr Swinney is likely to be “laser-focused on the key issues” that matter to the public, but warned that “their performance over recent times has deteriorated”.

Recent polling shows that only 36 per cent of the public think the Scottish Government is doing a good job on education and the NHS, with Mr Diffley stressing that was “considerably higher in the days of Nicola Sturgeon”.

The polling expert also warned that polling from November shows that 61 per cent believe the SNP is divided, up from just 34 per cent in the space of 12 months.

Mr Diffley suggested that public perception of division “highlights the challenge that Swinney will have”, as he looks to “reset the agenda and focus on core issues”.

The Scottish Greens have not yet decided how to approach a government headed by Mr Swinney. The Perthshire North MSP has worked closely with the party before and played a key role in drawing up the Bute House Agreement under Ms Sturgeon’s administration.

If the Greens were unable to support a minority SNP Government, Mr Swinney would need to appeal, potentially on a policy-by-policy basis, to Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, in order to pass legislation and budgets at Holyrood.

A spokesperson for the Scottish Greens said: “The leader of the SNP is a decision for SNP members.

“The Scottish Greens remain committed to the progressive values and climate action that were at the heart of the Bute House Agreement, and will continue working to deliver these through the Scottish Parliament and councils across the country.

“Once a vote is scheduled to elect the next first minister our MSPs will meet to discuss our next steps.”