Time and tide wait for no-one - even Scotland

WHAT is Scotland's energy policy now? The SNP's decision to scrap new nuclear has formalised Scottish Labour's carefully scripted policy of nuclear reluctance. And though some Labour MSPs may want to overrule Alex Salmond's planning veto, the Scottish public (and many Labour MSPs in private) have given the unambiguous anti-nuclear stance a cautious thumbs-up.

In part that's because of worries over nuclear waste disposal, connections with nuclear weapons manufacture and the blank nature of the government cheque needed to subsidise nuclear production and decommissioning. But in part that's also because the public believes new technologies like clean coal and marine energy can take over when nuclear stations close and large onshore wind farms have finally been vetoed by Western Isles voters, thanks to the SNP's election commitment to heed local referendums on the three current proposals there. Unfortunately, it isn't going to be that simple.

Creating a stable renewable energy mix will require just that - a stable of renewable sources. And even though big onshore wind is perceived as unpopular (though general opinion polls still suggest otherwise), it's hard to see how Scotland's new energy mix can work without it. There is one reason for this.

If a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, a commercially available renewable energy resource is worth two at the research and development stage. And sadly, and shamefully, after several undeserved decades in the doldrums, marine energy - and indeed clean coal - are still at the R&D stage.

That's not the view of a nuclear conspiracist, but of Richard Yemm, the managing director of Ocean Power Delivery, the Edinburgh-based company whose Pelamis wave machines are about to power the world's first commercial wave-farm off the coast of Portugal.

Don't get Mr Yemm wrong; Scotland's marine potential is huge and unique. It's been calculated waves produce enough energy to power a hundred homes per foot of coastline along Scotland's western seaboard. That level of "take" is rivalled only by Chile and Australia in the entire world. According to Mr Yemm, "Scotland is at the end of a massive wave conveyor belt - the Atlantic - where low pressure drives strong winds over great expanses of sea, sweeping big waves our way all year round."

Add to that the expertise gathered over decades in the North Sea oil and gas industries and Scotland has an unparalleled potential to create, collect and distribute wave and tidal energy - and to create thousands of jobs in the process.

"The wind industry currently supports 60-80,000 jobs worldwide - hardly any of them in Scotland. The wave industry has the potential to create the same number, and the majority could be based here," he said. It is a heady prospect.

Scotland's western seaboard could be dotted with floating chains of Pelamis turbines and sub-sea clusters of tidal stream turbines (like the Norwegian ocean-floor units which will be piloted in UK waters next year in a ScottishPower backed project).

Marine and tidal technologies have the potential to create thousands of manufacturing jobs in Scotland. Both could produce gigawatts of energy (and in the case of tidal that would be non-intermittent baseload energy to replace oil, gas and nuclear). And both would be out of sight on the sea, conforming to BANANA - "Build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone" - the new "post NIMBY" measure of public acceptability.

The only snag with this positive and possible energy future is that it isn't round the corner. The first wave power to the UK grid will supply about 1MW from a small trial station off Orkney next year. That's enough to power 1,000 homes on Orkney. If the trials are successful, there could be 25MW by 2010 and 600MW of wave power by 2020.

The onshore wind farms now facing referendums on the Western Isles could deliver 600MW within months.

Clean coal at Longannet - also being backed by ScottishPower - will need almost a decade to prove if it's possible to remove carbon emissions by forcing the unwanted by-product of coal-burning into coal formations beneath the power station, allowing British Gas to capture the resulting methane for eventual delivery to the grid.

That considerable achievement would clean up existing supplies, and open the way for future new clean coal stations. But it would largely replace old "unclean" energy and not contribute new power to the grid.

Solar power should have its near perfect European home in Dundee - where the natural bonus of the longest sunshine hours in the UK coincides with the location of housing stock on south facing hills. And yet the local council has only been able to afford a handful of council house conversions. Wood chips could heat homes and help create local energy grids. But the Clean Air Act has to be amended first.

Then there is offshore wind, 6-8GW of which has already been contracted (that's five or six power stations worth).

Spain has added an annual gigawatt of wind energy to its energy mix by taking the political decision to build large windfarms. Here, it's been possible for politicians to hide behind Scotland's painfully slow planning system and under-developed grid network, to let wind energy policy be determined by red tape, reported public opinion and chance.

In another world clean coal, wave and tidal would be researched, proven and ready to roll. In Scotland 2007, it ain't so.

The renewable energy industry doesn't need random, instant change. It needs a workable strategy. And that's what the Scottish public need the SNP to deliver.