With Conservatives facing near electoral extinction, don't bet against Rishi Sunak getting the boot – Euan McColm

As Rishi Sunak may be about to realise, once politicians start to view a leader with contempt, their days are numbered

The Conservative party is so dysfunctional, these days, that simply observing its misery feels like an act of bullying. To witness the Tories’ agonies is like peering through a window at the unhappiest family on the street. Some colleagues brief anonymously against each other, while others are so desperate that they’ve broken cover to air their grievances.

Like a fatally wounded beast, the Conservative party thrashes around, lashing out but failing to slow its inevitable demise. One needn’t be a devoted observer of UK politics to know the Tories face disaster at the next general election. Each new opinion poll suggests a record victory for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party.

And so it’s not surprising that panic-stricken Tory MPs have begun to ask whether they should replace Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister before the electorate does the job. A number of Conservatives, anticipating the loss of their seats, are said to favour getting rid of Sunak and installing Penny Mordaunt in 10 Downing Street.

Rishi Sunak, seen at the Great British Beer Festival, may be good at pub games but his leadership skills do not impress some Conservatives (Picture: Daniel Leal/WPA pool/Getty Images)

Turn back time

The idea that Sunak is entirely to blame for the Tories’ current woeful state is fanciful but since his colleagues are unable to travel back in time, undoing a litany of damaging policies, preventing Liz Truss from becoming PM, and ensuring there are no parties in Number 10 during lockdown, he’s in their sights.

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Tory MPs who believe Mordaunt, most famous for carrying a ceremonial sword during the coronation of King Charles, is the solution to their party’s problems are kidding themselves. The combination of scandals that has brought the Tories low is bigger than any individual. That’s not to say, disruptive though the process may be, there might not be limited merit in such a move.

The Conservatives are not, right now, fighting to win the next election; they are fighting against a defeat that veers on extinction-level. With some polls suggesting the Tories could win little more than 100 seats at the next election, then the belief a new leader could save even a handful of seats might be enough to justify drastic action.

Chance to be Prime Minister

Conventional wisdom tells us that no Tory MP would want to take control of the party now. Instead, the smart and ambitious wannabe leader should wait, allow Sunak to take the blame, and then make his or her move. That’s all well and good but let’s take Mordaunt, for example.

At 51, the Leader of the House of Commons will not have many opportunities to become Prime Minister. If that is her ambition, does she move soon when her chances look reasonable or does she wait until after the election, try to become leader of the opposition and – if she’s desperately unlucky – win the contest, entering her into years of misery as her party continues to tear itself apart until it gets its act together and Mordaunt’s successor wins at the polls?

In recent days, Sunak has tried to reassert his authority over the Conservative party but the brutal truth is that once politicians – or anyone else – views a leader with contempt, their days are numbered. That’s where he is. There are countless reasons why it might be a mistake for the Tories to ditch Sunak before the next general election but don’t bet against it happening.