THE Scottish housing market's relative resilience to the credit crunch will be confirmed by figures to be published by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) on Tuesday.
For the first time, the trade body will produce quarterly statistics on the size of the Scottish housing market, measuring the amount of mortgage borrowing by first-time buyers and home movers.
The CML said it has wanted to do this for some time,
especially post-devolution, and it is now able to obtain accurate enough data from lenders to produce a regional breakdown of the UK figures.
While the likes of Lloyds TSB and HBOS monitor house prices, the CML is the only body to measure total volumes of mortgage business in the UK.
The CML said in its recent 2008 forecast that UK house prices will be about 7% lower at the end of the year than in 2007 and house sales will be down by 35%.
In an interview with Scotland on Sunday, Michael Coogan, CML director general, said: "The new figures will show the Scottish market hasn't gone through the ups and downs of other parts of the UK and the credit crunch hasn't affected it as much."
He put this down to a more stable customer base and Scotland playing catch-up from lower levels of home ownership.
But Coogan warned that Scotland is not entirely immune from the credit crunch as it is also affected by a lack of liquidity, forcing lenders to limit mortgage approvals, and a drop in the number of people moving house.
The fundamental issue is the £30m funding gap faced by lenders, according to the CML. The CML says more mortgage-backed securities must be reissued and investors need to be confident that the UK will not suffer the same sub-prime meltdown as the United States.
Coogan said: "Global investors will come back, but not in the immediate future, and until they do we'll have fewer funding sources.
"We've said net lending in the UK will be around £55bn this year, half the 2008 figure."
The full article contains 350 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
