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What about nuclear in peak oil scenario?



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THERE are two glaring omissions from Professor Harvey's article on 'Peak Oil' (Insight, April 27).
Nowhere does he mention the future role of nuclear energy in generating electric power, and nowhere does he deal with the burgeoning civil aviation industry. The first omission is understandable, as his party (along with the Liberal-Democrats) has em
braced a blinkered policy against nuclear energy. Yet most of his ideas about extending the use of public transport depend on increasing electricity consumption for traction. How is a reliable supply of this electricity to be generated? Not, I suggest, solely by an array of windmills.

Arguments for the use of public transport are only too familiar. But claims that public transport is "qualitatively superior and succeeds through speed, co-ordination and low cost" depend on the nature of the individual journey concerned, and it is hard indeed for public transport to compete with the flexibility of the car in many cases. As to freight, observation suggests that freight customers find many problems when they attempt to transfer goods from road to rail transport.

Professor Hardie advocates moving more freight by coastal shipping. But unless the coasters are to be powered by gas turbines or nuclear reactors, will they not require oil fuel to run their engines? And it is hardly relevant if one needs to move goods from (say) the English Midlands to Leeds or London.

I am far from complacent about 'Peak Oil'. After the defence of the realm and the maintenance of civil order, the Government's first responsibility is to ensure the reliability and continuity of the energy supplies on which the benefits of modern civilisation depend. Consider the situation in South Africa, where power cuts are a daily occurrence, creating problems for hospitals, mortuaries and mining production, not to mention the population at large. To produce the electricity we will need, we must soon commit to a new generation of nuclear power stations. For road and air transport, we must hope that technical innovation will produce new forms of motive power, without detriment to world food supplies. Without such innovation, the future looks pretty bleak.

J Keith Farquharson, Inverness





The full article contains 364 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 03 May 2008 8:17 PM
  • Source: Scotland On Sunday
  • Location: Scotland
 
1

truthsleuth,

04/05/2008 01:17:06
#J Keith Farquharson, Inverness like all car fanatics displays his closed mind thinking in his attitude towards public transport.
No one I know consider public transport or rail freight will ever provide for all journeys but it does provide for a very high percentage of urban and log distance inland travel.
There is great potential then for removing a significant modal shift where MOST of the car usage currentlt occurs.
Rural and journeys in the Cairn Gorms will always predominantly on foot though journeys to the top of Snowdon can already be made by train.
He should remember electrified rail uses existing technologe and rail already has the lions share of inter city traffic.
2

The Ghost of Sir William Arrol,

The Forthy Bridge 04/05/2008 01:26:06
Great Idea, just don't mention 'peak uranium' in 20 years at current global consumption rates for enriched uranium. If everyone has the same idea it may last a lot less. Sadly there's 100 year's supply of uranium ore which requires processing, this will never be available because it requires oil to mine and power the enrichment process.

Perhaps concentrating on tidal energy and hydro power may provide a better base-load of energy generation for lighting homes and powering electric trains in the future. I doubt there will be much requirement for our current road infrastructure, why roads are still being built is a mystery because there will be less traffic year on year, unless an unlikely magic invention comes along!
3

The Ghost of Sir William Arrol,

The Forthy Bridge 04/05/2008 01:38:54
I forgot to mention Aviation. The less said about the grim future of that ailing industry, the better. (Yes I know flying off on holiday is nice, but just because we like something doesn't mean we'll be able to keep doing it for ever!) I reckon Edinburgh Airport will be in heavy decline within a few years and all but closed within 10 because of sky-high fuel costs. Simply put, the industry is unsustainable after peak oil. Talk of biofuels for aviation is a non starter unless you want half the world to starve so that extremely rich people can fly!
4

Unimpressed one,

04/05/2008 09:30:03
"I reckon Edinburgh Airport will be in heavy decline within a few years and all but closed within 10 because of sky-high fuel costs. Simply put, the industry is unsustainable after peak oil."

Christ, what planet is this buffoon on?
5

Upbeat,

04/05/2008 09:51:52
Already some very idealistic pontification here this morning.

Any thought that the simple call for electrification of trains will serve to provide freight transport links to us all is a non starter. Just go and have a look at the range of products in your kitchen cupboards. Then ask yourself A) whether there is a rail track to anywhere near your house from which you could collect these things . B) Consider how many new factories you have seen anywhere that are built with a rail spur , or the location required to connect them to the rail system.

The thought that road vehicles will be made to work efficiently using stored electricity is another non starter. So long as technology cannot produce light weight materials for accumulator design this will not happen.

Much has been written over recent decades about the prospects of Hydrogen as a fuel. The development of large engines for use in heavy vehicles using this fuel has not been publicised...if indeed it is occuring. So this is simply a dream as yet.

Much is made by one correspondent here over the extent and possible lifespan of uranium reserves. As with oil, as the urgency increases and the price goes ever higher alternative supplies will be found.

The idea that we do not have to build a sound raod system, because road transport will be impossible in a few short decades is daft. Building a decently engineered road system, so as to increase the efficiency of vehicles that have to use it is a vital fuel saving measure. Whether electrical , Hydrogen , or advanced hybrid vehicles are the future, good well engineered, properly located roads for the movement of food and essential materials will always be needed.

6

John (Again),

Bury St Edmunds 04/05/2008 10:52:18
"Rocketing oil price leaves BA stuck on the runway" heads an article by Nick Hasell in The Times Business last Friday in which he writes "Airlines are going bankrupt on an almost daily basis ..." Although jet fuel can be made from gas or coal it is at half the thermal efficiency as from crude oil. Struggling airlines will cancel orders for new aircraft, adding Airbus to the list of government rescue objects.

The rising cost of diesel will also make the mining of decreasing uranium ore grades uneconomic, while escalating the costs of nuclear new build. It will be a brave quantity surveyor putting a price on a nuclear station built over five years starting in 2012 or on the final cost of Olympics 2012 hopefully finished in the same year!

UK registrations of new cars peaked in 2003 since when they have declined, heralding a decline in motor manufacturing.

The only upbeat show coming to terms with reality is the Transition Towns movement, which started as a student project in Kinsale and now engaged in "energy descent" in Totnes in Devon, Lewes in Sussex and Lampeter in Wales. It will be surprising if it is not already on the way in Scotland.

Gordon Brown - it is "relocalisation" not "globalisation" now that is the "long-term" investment we need.
7

The Ghost of Sir William Arrol,

The Forthy Bridge 04/05/2008 12:54:43
#4 Unimpressed one.

I have worked for 25 years around the world as an exploration geologist in the oil industry and I know what I know and what I have seen. You clearly don't know what you don't know!

Do you know that the North Sea oil fields peaked in 1999 and that output has fallen 40% since then, despite record investment?

In a story from Thursday, USA TODAY writes "record-high oil prices are threatening to ground millions of travelers who have grown accustomed to flying for fun and business during the last 30 years". The paper adds that "with today's unprecedented jet fuel prices, airline executives and aviation analysts are warning that only extreme fare increases and dramatic cutbacks in flights will enable the industry to cover a 2008 jet fuel bill 44% higher than last year's."

Fuel costs up 44% in a year - do the maths for 10 years as oil supplies continue to decline and then call me a buffoon!
8

Kazacs,

Australia 04/05/2008 13:12:31
"I reckon Edinburgh Airport will be in heavy decline within a few years and all but closed within 10 because of sky-high fuel costs. Simply put, the industry is unsustainable after peak oil."

Christ, what planet is this buffoon on?

Interesting comment
With the trend of 70% rises on oil price every year for the last 3 years the continuing trend would make a barrel of oil worth over $30,000 in 10 years time.
There is nothing I can see that would currently stop this trend.
Obviusly before that happened our economic system would colapse as economy relies on cheap energy to operate and grow.

In this scenario I could not see many planes flying
9

Poul Andreasen,

Denmark 04/05/2008 14:22:21
Kudos for "The Ghost" for speaking up with what you know. Uranium is indeed in short supply and will only temporarily ease the dependency from oil. A lot of people are unaware of the seriousness of the future energy situation. Largely because we are not told by traditional media. But if you sniff around on the Internet, you will know. There is an excellent article on The Oil Drum, "The Energy Return of Nuclear Power", by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3877
From the conclusion: "...there is no free lunch with nuclear. Nevertheless it is possible that nuclear fission should be considered as a transition fuel on our way to solar or something else simply because the cycle emits far less CO2 than does any fossil fuel.".
10

Poul Andreasen,

Denmark 04/05/2008 14:43:02
Kazacs above: "With the trend of 70% rises on oil price every year for the last 3 years the continuing trend would make a barrel of oil worth over $30,000 in 10 years time."

Interesting calculation. Could indeed be true. The energy equivalent of a barrel of oil is 25.000 hours of manual labour (do the math - the figures are on the Internet). This would pay our manual worker a little over 1 US$ an hour in current wages. So the price may be higher still, if we have no alternatives to oil, and oil does indeed run out (Read chief economist Fatih Birol of International Energy Agency: "Leave Oil before it leaves Us'" http://www.energybulletin.net/43604.html .

But.... if we use the remaining oil wisely to create alternative energy systems, we may not need to pay the ultimate price - some alternative energy systems have sufficient energy return of energy invested to stand in for oil. Even if not for cheap oil...
Another interesting piece by professor Hall, "The Energy Return of (Industrial) Solar - Passive Solar, PV, Wind and Hydro", http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3910.

 

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