WHAT THE hell happened? It seems like only yesterday that the men in blue couldn't lose against the Irish if they fielded a girl guide troupe with Brown Owl as coach. Now Scotland can't beg a win for any money. Perhaps Murrayfield got complacent and banked on Ireland always remaining the good – no, great – losers that they once were? If so it was a mistake, a bad mistake.
From 1989-99 the two teams met on 12 occasions (including the World Cup) and Scotland won every match bar one. It was a draw. Since 2000 the teams have met on 11 occasions (including two World Cup warm ups) and Ireland have triumphed nine times.
Some of us were a bit slow on the uptake. Not long after the turn of the millennium I remember walking to Lansdowne Road in Dublin with the late journalist/politician Brian Meek and we passed a betting shop. With time to kill and money to be made we both put our shirts on Scotland to win at 4-1. How could we possibly lose? "Comprehensively," was the obvious answer, as Ireland ran out 43-22 winners. Past performance is no guide to future earnings, as the warning on investments states these days. We were both using old millennium thinking in what was an entirely new rugby landscape.
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Iain Morrison will host an online debate at 1pm on Tuesday 10 March about the Scotland squad selection for the match against Ireland. Sign up for an email reminder here.Ireland were the new rude boys on the Six Nations block, the lads at the street corner laughing in the faces of their one-time bullies, knowing a sea change in the sport's tectonic plates had taken place. It wasn't always pretty but the new Ireland were winners and there is every sign that they will maintain their excellent recent record against Scotland on Saturday. It is true that Declan Kidney's men have yet to impress with anything other than their results, unbeaten in three outings, but Frank Hadden would kill to have those problems.
And yet for all Ireland's success against Scotland, what is regularly dubbed the "Golden Generation" have yet to actually win anything. They haven't managed to top the championship, despite coming second on four occasions this decade, and they are still looking for their first Grand Slam since 1948. Now they have two matches to write their names into the history books, 160 minutes of rugby stand between these players and history and the desperate yearning of this squad to win something, to win anything, before Old Father Time takes his toll is almost tangible.
The Scots will hope their guests choke but Ireland brings an experienced and settled side. Kidney has selected the same starting XV in the first three outings and he looks likely to make that four in a row against Scotland. Remember the Scots' own 1990 Grand Slam side went the whole season unchanged; the omens are ominous as is the form of key players Brian O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell.
They are the only two realistic candidates for Lions captain after Ryan Jones played himself out of contention in Paris and both men are operating at the peak of their powers. Scotland have nothing to match the raw aggression of O'Connell while O'Driscoll seems to have been drinking the elixir of youth.
Only the third leg of Ireland's ruling triumvirate looks a little shaky. Ronan O'Gara missed four kicks at goal against England. The Scots will attack the Irish 10/12 channel relentlessly because neither O'Gara or Ulster's Paddy Wallace are renowned for their defensive work but England tried the exact same tactic and still Ireland made good on 97% of their tackles… as close to perfection as makes no difference.
While Ireland have stability and know what they are trying to do – and it isn't anything particularly clever with the Munster influence clear for all to see – Hadden probably still doesn't know his best team.
Simon Taylor looks a spent force in attack, especially when compared with his club mate Sergio Parisse, but he gets through a heap of defensive duties so perhaps the middle row is the right place for him. Jason White is not the force of nature he once was but his versatility makes him a useful option off the bench for a 20-30 minute blow. On current form alone Chris Cusiter would start ahead of Mike Blair but making those sort of difficult decisions has never been Frank's forte.
Instead Hadden will make the easy change and draft in Ally Dickinson for the injured Allan Jacobsen while there is at least a fighting chance that either Nathan Hines or Jim Hamilton will be fit to take their place in Scotland's boiler room. Short of match practice as they are, either one of these two behemoths would still go some way to keeping a lid on O'Connell and co.
Al Kellock probably did enough at the set piece, lineout and restarts, to earn the place alongside one of them.
Any backline with two wingers who are so clearly capable of scoring tries must have a puncher's chance of landing a body blow to Ireland's aspirations but only if the inside backs can buy the fast men a metre of space out wide and that is far from certain against a defence as tight as Ireland's.
If he's playing, Chris Paterson will kick everything just as he did two years ago (Scotland fell short 19-18), except that probably won't be enough. This Ireland side are as disciplined as Miss Whiplash, they conceded just two penalties against France (who coughed up 10) and then they erred exactly half as many times as England did last weekend.
The Scots' best hope may lie in hoping that the visitors have one eye on the final weekend's showdown in Cardiff; it's not exactly unknown in the sporting world.
This Irish side are not world beaters and the worm will turn once more, as these things always do, until the Scots get to bully and sneer at their Celtic cousins once more. The tide will eventually change and the pendulum will swing the other way but it probably won't happen next Saturday.
The full article contains 1055 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
