IF THE omens are to be believed, all Italy need to do tonight to bag their place in the semi-finals of Euro 2008 is just turn up.
After all, Spain, the great under-achievers, haven't beaten them in any competitive match outside the Olympic Games for 88 years. But Roberto Donadoni, who has been relaxing in the build-up to his team's biggest game since the World Cup final by play
ing golf, knows full well that his misfiring squad cannot afford to be below par if they are to avoid one of the great jinxes of international football being erased from the record books.
As they showed against Scotland in the qualifying tournament, the world champions have that annoying habit of doing just enough, traditionally sneaking through the group stage and gradually building momentum. In the 1982 World Cup in Spain, they drew their three matches in the first group stage but Paolo Rossi's six goals eventually led them to the title. During their triumph in Germany two years ago, a 1-1 draw with the United States threatened their chances, while a 1-0 win over Australia in the second round was thanks to a debatable stoppage-time penalty.
Here we go again except this time, crucially, Italy will have to overcome the loss of arguably their three best outfield players to progress any further. To poorly paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one key midfielder for a quarter-final of this magnitude may be considered unfortunate, to lose two smacks of carelessness – especially when they are of the calibre of Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo, on whom Italy rely for their defensive cover and attacking playmaking. Throw in the loss of their captain Fabio Cannavaro, ruled out pre-tournament, and you get some idea of the task facing them in Vienna against a rampant Spain who, for once, will start slight favourites if only because of the way they have been playing.
AC Milan coach Carlo Ancelotti doesn't see it that way, however. He does not envisage Italy being too badly affected without the AC Milan duo who both picked up second yellows in the Azzurri's 2-0 win over France. Ancelotti believes Donadoni's squad are more than adequately equipped to compensate for the absence of their two midfield linchpins.
"Unfortunately we at AC Milan can never find a replacement for Pirlo, but in the national team there are many good players and Donadoni has an embarrassment of riches with Mauro Camoranesi, Alberto Aquilani and Simone Perrotta," he said.
Wishful thinking perhaps but Ancelotti played alongside Donadoni when Italy beat Spain 1-0 in the Euro '88 quarter-finals and was assistant coach to Arrigo Sacchi when Italy made it past Spain in the quarter-finals of the 1994 World Cup. He has been impressed by Luis Aragonés' team but remains confident of another Italy victory.
"Spain are a team that likes to play slowly, then quickly increase their pace. We have to attack their weak spot, on the right side of defence. I think we'll beat them because we are more of a complete side. After France we turned the corner and now we don't need to fear anyone."
No team wins any major tournament without an element of good fortune or a major turning point. Italy might well have been eliminated without Gianluigi Buffon's late penalty save against Romania, or if France had not lost Franck Ribéry through injury early, then been reduced to ten men.
Ancelloti may know more than most but the question remains, how are Italy going to score while at the same time stopping David Villa and Fernando Torres giving their unusually wobbly defence a torrid time at the other end? Luca Toni sums up their troubles. He scored for fun when bagging 24 league goals for Bayern Munich last season but at Euro 2008, the tall, powerful forward has missed the target with nine shots – more than any other player.
Donadoni insists he doesn't worry too much about statistics. After all, he points out, Rossi did not score in the first three matches in 1982 either. But what about at the back? Cannavaro, whose cajoling presence on Italy's bench two years after lifting the World Cup has been the equivalent to a virtual 12th man, is confident those who wear the shirt tonight will come through any scares.
"Sometimes you get off to a false start in tournaments," said Cannavaro. "But now we've rediscovered our team spirit. It's hard for me not playing but the boys are mature enough to rise to the occasion."
Although Spain beat Italy in a 1-0 March friendly this, says Cannavaro, is literally a whole different ball game.
"There's no doubt they have players of great technical ability and they will be fit too because they rested players against Greece. But all teams have weaknesses and we'll have to exploit theirs by taking advantage of the space they sometimes leave when going forward."
Donadoni is under massive pressure with World Cup-winning coach Marcello Lippi still out of work having stepped down after the 2006 triumph. Lippi stayed quiet after Italy's opening 3-0 defeat by the Dutch and the 1-1 draw with Romania. However, he broke his silence to salute the side for their survival instincts against France: "They showed compactness, enthusiasm and strength that I applaud."
Spain may have looked as impressive as anyone in the tournament but would you bet with confidence against Italy beating a team whose collective nerve has failed under pressure so many times before? Spain look the real deal this time. But do they have stomach for the fight? Italy have, as they have proved many times.
But if, just if, it should come down to a penalty shootout, which of the keepers would you back? Buffon, with his vast experience and calmness under pressure? Or the reflexes of Real Madrid's Iker Casillas? "Champions of the World and champions of luck," was how one Spanish paper described Italy yesterday.
Maybe they were just trying to get their excuses in ahead of time.
