They think it's all over

NEVER in a 16-field European Championships have so many teams who have taken the lead won so few games. That this phenomenon has been fundamental to the shape Euro 2004 has taken may possibly point to developments in how the game is being played at the top level, and the mentality of underdogs within this environment.

Over the first 25 games of the tournament, teams failed to register victories in matches in which they netted the first goal in no fewer than 11 encounters. In these games more goals were scored and fewer clean sheets kept than was true of the European Championships in 2000 and 1996: the only two previous times 16 teams have competed in these finals.

The contrast between this year and those tournaments when it comes to fighting back after conceding the first goal is indeed stark. This happened only five times in 2000 and on a mere three occasions four years earlier. In Portugal, the Czech Republic on their own equalled this figure. The kings of the comeback emerged triumphant in all three of their Group D games after initially falling behind.

That a 1-0 lead has given teams little sense of security points to a more progressive, enterprising instinct from the teams at the footballing extravaganza moving towards its conclusion in southern Europe. And this has left egg on the faces of some who should no better. Greece would probably be regarded as one of the more defensive sides in the competition. Under masterful coach Otto Rehhagel they favour a counter-attacking policy that involves first suffocating the life out of opponents’ attacking moves. This worked to spectacular effect in the 1-0 quarter-final victory over France that represents one of the greatest upsets in the 44-year history of the tournament.

Yet there is more to the Greeks than solidity at the back that was responsible for them conceding only four goals in the qualifiers ... even if now-deposed Spain coach Inaki Saez, to his cost, failed to appreciate this. Before facing Greece in Group A, he claimed that, while they were dangerous if able to nudge in front, they were not so adept at restoring parity. In the subsequent confrontation, Spain duly took the lead, then took their foot of the pedal which allowed Greece to open up and bag an equaliser.

This draw is the very reason Spain took the flight home at the conclusion of the group stages. Meanwhile, similar fates befalling Italy and Germany accounted for their non-participation in the last eight. The recent diminution on the international scene of these three nations means less illustrious sides are no longer gripped with a fear factor when facing what have tended to be considered behemoths of the game. As a consequence, they no longer consider a single-goal deficit a mountain to be climbed but more a hill that perseverance and belief can allow them to scale.

Italy were unable to protect a 1-0 lead against a Sweden side they outplayed for long spells, conceding a late equaliser in the Group C confrontation between these sides, while Germany, after being a goal in front, went down 2-1 to a second string, already-qualified Czech side they met in a Group D decider in which only a win was sufficient to allow Rudi Voller’s side to progress.

Indeed, for sheer indefatigability, all roads wind towards the Czechs. In running out 3-2 winners against a Dutch side who had gone 2-0 up against them a week ago, they produced one of the most outrageous fightbacks in the recent history of the international game. Clearly, as results have demonstrated, outsiders perceive that there has been a convergence in abilities between those would-be power brokers and, in the eyes of observers, would-be makeweights.

Leads have changed hands regularly at Euro 2004 because deficiencies inherent in the make-up of the pre-tournament favourites have prevented these sides dominating encounters against smaller nations as once they could. One-sided encounters have been notable by their absence, and even in being given a 5-0 horsing by Sweden last week, Bulgaria matched their Group C rivals for all of 50 minutes.

Practically every side, great and small, possessed players capable of hurting opponents. As was evidenced in Latvia’s scoreless draw against Germany. The Baltic state were the lowest ranked team at Euro 2004 but when facing Voller’s side it was their striker Maris Verpakovskis who produced an object lesson in leading the line for his German counterparts Kevin Kuranyi and Fredi Bobic.

A number of aspects must be taken into account when assessing why there seems to be a balancing out of the respective strengths of international teams that has made a 1-0 lead not so much a cushion as a single duck-feather. Coaches have played their part. In going about their business in a far more proactive manner than was once true - both during games and between them - their influence has risen to new levels.

This is where those teams who arrived in Portugal unburdened by expectations of returning home with a trophy are at a possible advantage. Swedish co-managers Lars Lagerback and Tommy Soderberg knew they would not face the wrath of their media if their three attacking substitutions which entirely changed the complexion of their encounter with Italy had not paid off. Facing the same set of circumstances, this would not have been true for Giovanni Trapattoni, another coaching casualty of Euro 2004.

By the same token, Luiz Filipe Scolari is looking forward to a semi-final appearance in charge of Portugal because he has not allowed himself to be cowed by the demands placed on him by the home nation. He dispensed with three of the four members of his backline after the opening day defeat at the hands of Greece and has re-invigorated Rui Costa, one of the country’s golden boys, by utilising him as substitute. Costa twice has come off the bench and scored, his scintillating equaliser in the quarter-final against England central to the penalty shoot-out triumph over Sven Goran Eriksson’s men. Fortune certainly appears to be favouring the brave in Euro 2004, then.

Conditions, meanwhile, have not always favoured the bigger nations, the sweltering heat for some of the 5pm group matches proving another leveller that has possibly allowed less talented sides to avoid having the tempo of encounters dictated to them.

And then there are the referees. UEFA’s obsessional pursuit of miscreants has resulted in a mountain of yellow cards. On occasion, these have appeared to inhibit some of the physically stronger sides; which tend to be those from the larger nations. Thankfully, cynical play of the sort often wrapped up in the national footballing characteristics of such countries as Italy and Spain has been outlawed. In turn, teams have been willing and able to express themselves in a way not always true of major finals of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Football might yet be coming home in Portugal, with the hosts already having equalled their best showing in the European Championships. But it might also be in the process of finding some new residences for excellence.