KISSING Joanna Lumley and being cheered by a group of Gurkha veterans was – by some distance – the highlight of the Prime Minister's week. In the spring sunshine outside parliament, having just brokered a deal to allow the soldiers to stay in Britain, Brown was able – for a few short minutes – to enjoy a rare moment of adulatory praise.
Back in Downing Street, the mood darkened quickly. As Brown sought to move the agenda on with a series of reforms aimed at ending expenses abuses, the stream of revelations just kept on coming: two more ministers accused of dodging capital gains ta
x, a government whip notching up £1,150 on petty cash, a Scottish MP's £250 alarm clock.
"He went ballistic last week over some of the claims," said one close ally. The sense of control slipping away was only heightened by the contrast between his actions and the more decisive disciplinary measures of Tory leader David Cameron.
This weekend, Team Brown is claiming to have caught up. Having proclaimed the "end of the Gentleman's Club" last week in a bid to show that the era of expenses abuse is at an end, the Prime Minister is vowing to expel any Labour MP from standing at the next election if they fail to prove their probity. There is talk of an imminent reshuffle, designed to cast out some of the major culprits of the expenses crisis. Meanwhile, Brown is working on a "National Plan" to be unveiled after the Euro Elections on 4 June, covering everything from crime to the economy, which he hopes will steer a path out of recession.
The Prime Minister continues to push himself relentlessly, convinced that if the economy can turn before summer next year, a remarkable victory against David Cameron's Conservatives can be his. Now, if only the recession will end ... if only he can focus the public's attention onto the Tories' shortfalls ... if only he can close down the expenses row. If only, if only ... So what chance does Brown have of seeing out the storm?
Threads of hope still linger within Brown's Downing Street bunker, say friends. "There is still the belief that the economy will turn, that the economy will solve everything," says one ally. By steering public attention back onto the choice between him and Cameron, and by focusing attention on the Tories' policies on the economy, against his, the view is that it could still all come good.
"There's nothing behind Cameron's PR," says one ally. "If we can get the public just to look at him, then we have a chance." Some familiar cliches are being trotted out: Brown will "hit the ground running" after the European elections. A "fresh start" will be made. The National Plan will show voters that, even after 12 years in power, Labour is still "brimming with ideas". "He's going to rely on his Mr Morality tag," says an ally friend. "There is still a firm belief in sticking it out and seeing it through."
But this optimism is becoming increasingly rare, say others . The mood in Downing Street, says one leading Brown-ite, is "bleak". "I would say the majority of them are beginning to realise the game is up," the source said. "They won't admit that to themselves. Otherwise, how do you turn up for work every morning?" The Telegraph's relentless revelations about parliamentary expenses have hurt all the parties, but it is Brown's government which has felt the blows most keenly.
He is being particularly criticised by many for his handling of Communities Secretary Hazel Blears. After it emerged that Blears had "flipped" her second home to avoid paying capital gains tax, Brown described her behaviour as "completely unacceptable" – and yet she still remains in the Cabinet. The expectation is that Blears will be removed at a much anticipated reshuffle later next month. But that will only increase pressure on Brown to sack two other Ministers – Pensions Secretary James Purnell and Transport Secretary Geoff Hoon – who appear to have done much the same (although both deny the claims). The confusion means Brown has now succeeded in being attacked by friends of Blears for "pursuing a political vendetta" while being accused by his own allies of indecision.
The fear for Team Brown is that, long before the reshuffle and the "national plan" are rolled out, it all might fall to pieces anyway. Only ten days now separate the Prime Minister from the European elections, where an electoral wipeout is on the cards. Labour is widely tipped to plummet below 20 per cent of the popular vote. Meanwhile, there are even claims that it might be pushed into fourth place, behind the Conservatives, the Liberals and UKIP. As reported in this paper last week, several party figures say that if either of these things happen, Brown will have to go. One ally admitted: "If we're pushed into fourth, or the vote is only in the teens, then it could fall apart very quickly indeed." Either Brown could be told to go, or MPs could publicly rally around a successor. The party now appears united that leader-in-waiting is Health Secretary Alan Johnston. One theory has it that Johnston takes over, and immediately calls a General Election for October, in the hope of ameliorating Labour's losses.
A more likely scenario at present is that Labour scrambles above 20 per cent, and Brown survives to fight again. Those on the government payroll admit that the simple desire to stay in work for another few months until next May might be enough to quell the nuclear option of Regicide.
The expenses scandal is widely seen to have exposed the Brown government's fatal drift, as he struggled to catch up with Cameron's more agile response. His proposals to launch a national plan immediately after next month's elections suggest that the Prime Minister knows he cannot afford to allow events to take their course once again. But with the revelations about parliamentary expenses showing no signs of stopping, there seems little chance that Brown can direct the agenda. The expenses saga has already called time on one Scottish politician, in Speaker Martin. In the coming days, it is Prime Minister Brown who must fight to save himself.
