A milestone, not a millstone

ON WEDNESDAY, another mile stone will be reached in Glasgow's bid to host the 2014 Commonwealth Games. In London, the bid team, along with the team representing the Nigerian capital of Abuja, will hand over their official documents - all 240 pages in Glasgow's case - to the Commonwealth Games Federation. No changes will be permitted between then and November 9, when the decision is taken in Sri Lanka; six months will follow of sitting and waiting.

Not quite. On June 10, the official Bid Evaluation team will arrive in the city for their four-day inspection. Before that, a shadow evaluation team will conduct rigorous checks, inspecting venues and finding out if the buses run on time. There will follow a steady stream of visits from Commonwealth Games associations, beginning with Oceania on 18 July.

Three days ago, Glasgow's bid director, Derek Casey, flew to Sierra Leone to make his final presentation. Louise Martin, the chair of the Commonwealth Games Council for Scotland, is in Malta today making her final presentation. Between them, Casey and Martin have made 68 face-to-face presentations to the 71 members of the Commonwealth. When logistical problems prevented an earlier trip to Sierra Leone, Casey didn't give up on the vote of the troubled African nation, squeezing in a visit at the 11th hour.

The 2014 games looks like Glasgow's to lose, even in the face of apparently growing Nigerian optimism. Since the shock withdrawal of Halifax, Abuja's bid has gathered a reasonable head of steam, with Dr Tijani Yusuf, the secretary of its bid committee, stating during a recent visit to Ghana that "the indications are that we are the likely host of the forthcoming competition".

Casey, in the style of a football manager, is not worrying about a bullish opposition; he is focused on his own team and its own challenges. The uncertainty, for example, over who will be running Scotland in 2014 - or even the next day - did not faze him on Thursday morning as he prepared to fly to Sierra Leone (though he had taken the precaution of arranging a postal vote for himself). "Will it make a difference? I think the answer is no," said Casey. "What we've been struck by, since we started, is the cross-party support and we've no reason to think that won't continue.

"All the party leaders have been absolutely first class in their support. And that support has been so important because it has allowed us to concentrate on the technical details rather than political or financial aspects."

On the face of it, the "financial aspects" don't seem likely to bring the kind of controversy that has befallen the London 2012 Olympics. The figures are relatively modest on account of the fact that few new sporting facilities are required. But the real test - as London 2012 has demonstrated - comes when the bid ceases to be virtual and becomes real, after it is won. Casey, though, is confident that Glasgow, should they win, will not "do a London" and become mired in controversy and any recriminations. "The two bids [Glasgow and London] are very different," says Casey, "and the two budgets are very different. Our infrastructure is within one budget; 70% of it is already there, 20% is already committed, and only 10% is linked directly the games. Therefore I think we can concentrate on the revenue costs, which we've put at £288m, with 80% of that coming from the executive and 20% from Glasgow. Most cost overruns for major games tend to be linked to capital expenditure. But because we have so little capital expenditure I think we're confident that £288m is a very robust figure."

The main capital project is the National Indoor Sports Arena (NISA) and Casey's point is perfectly illustrated by some of the uncertainty that has surrounded this. The new centre in the east end of Glasgow, incorporating a multi-sports halls, an athletics track, a velodrome and offices, is currently at the design phase. The final costs have been approved, say the council, though they cannot, or will not, say what these are. Originally it was to be £24m; but since then the velodrome and offices, to house sportscotland, have been added. It was reported last year that the cost had ballooned to £70m, though George Black, the chief executive of Glasgow Council, was quick to deny this.

"The NISA/national velodrome will be completed in 2010 and will be built irrespective of whether Scotland's bid is successful or not," says a Glasgow Council spokesman. "Building work will begin next year." In addition to the 5,000-seat multi-sports venue, and the 2,000-seat velodrome (with the possibility of adding 2,000 more), the spokesman adds that "the sportscotland HQ will be located in the hub of the complex".

The questions raised - and they will presumably be answered at the conclusion to the design phase - concern the future of sportscotland (which the SNP said they would abolish if they formed the government), and the addition of the velodrome. This was originally destined for Edinburgh, with £6m allocated from sportscotland's regional sports facilities network fund in 2004, only to be switched to Glasgow. What isn't clear is whether that £6m will also be switched to Glasgow. Even then, it falls short of the estimated cost of the velodrome in Edinburgh, which was put at £10m in 2004.

Whatever the revised cost, £70m is well off the mark, says the Glasgow Council spokesman. It may not be an accurate comparison, but London's Velopark, comprising velodrome as well as road and off-road cycling facilities, will cost £37m. It does, however, seem reasonable to imagine that the NISA will be somewhere between £6m and £10m over the original £24m estimate - and it isn't clear where that money will come from.

Ironically, this only serves to highlight one of the main strengths of the Glasgow bid. Apart from the NISA, it does not involve a large, and costly, capital programme. And another London controversy will be avoided - not a penny will come from the lottery.

Casey seemed relaxed on Thursday, noting that the Glasgow team has secured "230 separate guarantees from hotels and other businesses to maintain 2007 prices, plus inflation, for teams and others connected with the games". He seemed, briefly, to be talking as if the bid had been won, though he was doing nothing of the sort. "Ours is an extraordinarily strong position to be in seven years out," was as close as he came to acknowledging Glasgow's status as the outstandnig favourite.