THE end is nigh, for the Six Nations at any rate. For Frank Hadden too, possibly, but that's another day's work. We haven't come here to bury one Scottish coach, but rather to talk of the elevation of another. What price the coach of the Lions being Scottish? What odds on, say, Ian McGeechan heading back to South Africa a dozen years after his ultimate coup with, hmm, Mike Blair as his on-field general?
Is it a bit early to talk this way? In the case of the captain, of course. But what harm is there? Yesterday's result apart, Scottish rugby is coming to the end of a painful few months, a spell that at times managed to rival the Matt Williams era in
terms of undiluted wretchedness. Pardon us for taking some time away from the darkened room. If we're at least a year premature in punting the claims of Blair, so be it.
Ladbrokes sent us some odds during the week. Actually, they sent us e-mails full of the things and all bar one involved the shifting prices of the Cheltenham Festival which starts on Tuesday. Standing out from the Kauto Stars and the Sizing Europes and the Nolands and all the other jollies from the Cotswolds was the number attached to Blair's name in connection with the Lions captaincy. The man who, as it stands, is guaranteed his place in the Test team and who is currently captaining his country, is 100-1 to get the gig. Frankly, you couldn't have enough on.
Brian O'Driscoll is money-on to get the job. At 4-6 this is daylight robbery. As the saying goes, at least Dick Turpin had the decency to wear a mask. O'Driscoll is not the blinding force he once was. Defensively, he is still outrageously good but those darts through a half-gap, those game-turning breaks and passes and tries are more in his past than in his future. He'll have it all to do to make a Lions Test side in 2009, never mind make it as captain.
Maybe his name is at the head of the market because of reputation or because of a sense of sympathy. Invalided out of the last tour in New Zealand, there is always a chance he may be given a second shot in South Africa. Doubtful, though. Paul O'Connell has better claims from the Irish camp although his worth as captain is very much unclear. He looks like one and plays like one but does he always think like one? That's the issue.
Others are listed – Jonny Wilkinson, Phil Vickery, Jason White. Wilkinson needs the burden of captaincy like he longs for a night on the tiles with Danny Cipriani, Vickery's fitness is always a concern and White may already have reached the beginning of the end of his time as a powerhouse in the back-row. The favourite in this book is Ryan Jones, that stand-up son of the Ospreys.
Jones was parachuted into the last Lions tour and performed admirably. He took to the whole circus like a natural. His leadership of Wales this season has been impressive. He's an outstanding No.8 and a fine ambassador. At this distance – and not allowing for the 'being run over by a bus' factor – Blair is his main challenger. He's another rock, on and off the field. He's been through ropey times at Edinburgh and even dicier times with Scotland but his performances rarely dip below the excellent. We also happen to know that McGeechan thinks Blair is the business.
The coach's appointment is imminent. Some will tell you that it has already been made and that McGeechan, the mastermind behind the downfall of the world champion Springboks in 1997, is going to be handed the opportunity to repeat his heroics. The word from McGeechan is that should he be given such a chance he will take the arm out of the socket of the man who offers it. He's expressed an interest, put it that way.
McGeechan is evens with Ladbrokes, which appears generous to the point of recklessness. You could argue that no man alive or dead is a greater Lion than McGeechan. Victorious as a player and coach (twice), he has come away from the horrors of a desk job at Murrayfield to become a European champion with Wasps and has reminded all who wrote him off that given a good squad of players he still has the magic within him. McGeechan, to borrow the parlance of the Cheltenham Festival, is surely a banker, a good thing, a hot pot.
His predecessor at Wasps, Warren Gatland, is second in the betting at 3-1. Gatland, who yesterday guided Wales to the Triple Crown, is an operator but he's a foreigner. Maybe that shouldn't matter but with the traditionalists in the committee you feel it will diminish him. Jake White, too. On paper he makes sense given his knowledge of the Springbok scene but to appoint Gatland or White would be to go out of the way to snub a high calibre candidate from 'home'. Why would they do it if McGeechan is keen?
The coaching ticket this time will be slimline compared to the swollen masses of the Sir Clive Woodward regime in New Zealand. The smart money will be on McGeechan, the speculative dough on Blair and if there's anything left in the tank after Cheltenham, a greedy plunge on the double.
The full article contains 926 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
