AT a presentation to the media a few months back, the SRU showcased their strategic review which had Orwellian targets for just about everything from recycling scrum machines to hot-dog sales. Included in the talk was the fact that the Murrayfield bigwigs now expect Scotland to win 40% of their RBS Six Nations matches, or two out of five.
It might be coincidence, but that is precisely what Frank Hadden has achieved to date. Under their current coach, Scotland have won four of their ten championship matches. Job done.
A win against France this afternoon would take him halfway to his target for the season, but recent history does not make particularly encouraging reading. Since the turn of the millennium, Scotland have played Les Bleus on nine occasions and won just once. The cumulative score reads 264-92 in France's favour and in those nine encounters La France claimed 28 tries to just seven for the Scots. Last time out the French ran up 46 points in Paris and Scotland didn't even play that badly.
But Hadden's team today is better balanced than the one that took to the Stade de France ten months ago, not least because the coach has filled in three gaping holes in the squad. The determination of Allan Jacobsen to swap his bit-part role for a place in the spotlight gives the popular prop a first Six Nations start under this regime. Scotland now have a loosehead starting at loosehead rather than a tighthead filling in, which is what Gavin Kerr was. Jacobsen offers more about the park and will carry the ball into the heart of the French defence.
The second hole was filled by John Barclay, who is the first specialist openside flanker to play for Scotland since the luckless Donnie Macfadyen appeared in the Port Elisabeth test against the Springboks back in 2006 and helped himself to a poacher's try in the process. The final piece of the jigsaw, and arguably the most important one, is the emergence of Nick De Luca as an international-class centre, which means that Hadden is no longer obliged to field a wing in the No.13 shirt. Simon Webster is back where he belongs.
The fact that he now has more options on the personnel front means that Hadden now also has more options in the style of rugby his team plays. The coach stated last week that his team would always try and play with the ball in hand as much as possible, and he has picked an attacking team, but the miserable weather conditions that are forecast for today will almost certainly ensure that the exciting back line won't see much action. Instead we should expect a resumption of the safety-first kick-and-chase tactics that worked in the World Cup.
"Welcome to Muddyfield", said one of the ground staff last weekend as I made my way through the hustle and bustle of the stadium putting on her Sunday best. "The match is going to have to be moved to one of the back pitches." He was joking, I think, but he said this without even the hint of a smile. Groundsmen take inordinate pride in their patch of grass and right now Murrayfield's pitch is a horrible mess after hosting three matches in the space of 24 hours last weekend.
With rain, snow, rain, wind, cold and more rain all forecast for today, the surface isn't going to get any better. This match is going to be an old-fashioned mud-wrestle which may not be what Hadden planned but it still suits Scotland infinitely better than it does their opposition. If the Scots' 15 looks bold given the conditions, Marc Lievremont's debut selection strays into foolhardy territory.
The Scots field a flyhalf in Dan Parks whose kicking from hand is world class and whose success rate in front of goal for Glasgow this season stands at 86%. In contrast, France's playmaker is a 21-year-old debutante who is renowned for his running rugby. French assistant coach Emile N'Tamack stated last week of Francois Trinh-Duc: "His kicking from hand has improved massively," which only suggests that it had a lot of improving to do.
France have had exactly four training sessions to mould 22 almost complete strangers into some sort of coherent team and the first was presumably spent on introductions. To top it all, the visitors lost centre Florian Fritz to a broken leg and prop Jean Baptiste Poux to a torn thigh muscle midweek, which further disrupted their already patchy preparation.
The Scottish pack will miss Simon Taylor but it still has a workmanlike look about it. Even allowing for inflated programme figures, they outweigh the French eight by a substantial margin, a crucial statistic for an encounter in which one-pass rugby looks like being the order of the day.
Scotland also have a significant advantage in experience. Jason White, with 63 to his name, has almost as many caps as the entire French pack, who can boast just 69 between them – almost half of those belonging to skipper Lionel Nallet. Scotland's bench (236) has almost as many caps as France's run-on 15 (241).
The reserve scrum-half Morgan Parra turned 19 last November and, like five others in the 22-man squad, international rugby is an entirely new experience for him. Barclay is the least experienced player in the home ranks and even he has one international appearance against the All Blacks to boast about.
The French coach played at Murrayfield ten years ago and scored a try in his side's 16-51 demolition job that day; perhaps Lievremont thinks it will be that easy again? His touchdown was one of five tries that the French scored that day but you suspect that they will be a lot harder to come by this afternoon for either team.
Scotland are not without their own worries. James Hamilton and Euan Murray are short of game time after struggling to get a start for Leicester and Northampton respectively. Dave Callam and Andy Henderson have both been out injured for several weeks and may be undercooked coming into this match. You wouldn't want to bet your life on Nikki Walker's ability under the high ball and Parks has been running hot and cold for Glasgow recently but all these problems pale into insignificance compared to France's woes.
Scotland have most things going for them today; continuity, experience, sheer size, expertise, the weather, the crowd and the familiarity that comes with home advantage. The only remaining hurdle is that of belief; the Scots look about as comfortable as a sow in stilettos when burdened with any sort of expectation.
The French can always spring a surprise and the rain might stay off, allowing for a much better spectacle. But whether they like it or not, Hadden's men are not just the equal of this French team, but their betters in almost every respect that is going to influence today's result. We just won't know if the Scottish players are thinking the same way until after the game kicks off.
PREDICITONSIain Morrison: Scotland 20, France 9Scotland's experience of wet weather rugby should give them a crucial advantage. This, allied to Dan Parks' kicking expertise, should see the home team repeat their success of two years ago.
Tom English: Scotland 19 France 15It would be an extraordinary triumph for Marc Lievremont if his new French team gel after only a week. They have class but Scotland have experience and are buoyant right now.
Richard Bath: Scotland 16, France 12Both sides will try and run the ball, but with the conditions probably mitigating against a high try count and with neither side containing an outstanding goalkicker, Scotland will grind their way to a win.
Martin Hannan: Scotland 21, France 18The conditions will determine everything. It looks as though it will be wet, so I take Scotland to win
narrowly in a low scoring match.
MORE ON THE MATCH...Nathan Hines: Silent treatment when getting into the zone is all that matters
Scott Hastings: Your first cap is special, and a winning debut makes it even better
Tom English: Stomach for the battle
Richard Bath: The bold alliance
Old friends, new bloodSCOTLAND TEAM15 Rory Lamont (Sale)14 caps. Age: 25, 6ft 2in, 15st 10lbs
Potent attacking threat at the World Cup. Hadden thinks his best position is wing but still picks him at full-back.
14 Nikki Walker (Ospreys)10 caps. Age: 25, 6ft 4in, 16st 3lbs
Small cap haul despite his seventh year as an international. His selection means 14 Ospreys this weekend, 13 of them for Wales.
13 Nick De Luca (Edinburgh)0 caps. Age: 23, 6ft, 14st 9lbs
Outrageously gifted player can star for years to come.
12 Andy Henderson (Glasgow)49 caps. Age: 28, 6ft 3in, 16st 1lb
Wins 50th cap on his 28th birthday.
11 Simon Webster (Edinburgh)29 caps. Age: 26, 6ft 1in, 14st
Popular for up-and-at-'em style. Only Scot to start all World Cup games.
10 Dan Parks (Glasgow)37 caps. Age: 29, 5ft 11in, 14st 5lbs
His kicking game is vital, not least in front of the posts.
9 Mike Blair (Edinburgh)43 caps. Age: 26, 5ft 11in, 13st 5lbs
Hugely effective in the dry but a little less so in the wet. Expect to see Chris Cusiter in the second half.
1 Allan Jacobsen (Edinburgh)24 caps. Age: 29, 5ft 10in, 18st 6lbs
In shape of his life for World Cup but lasted just 20 minutes. Offers Scotland a ballcarrying option.
2 Ross Ford (Edinburgh)16 caps. Age: 23, 6ft 1in, 16st 1lb
Up against two debutants, Scotland will be looking to Ford to capitalise.
3 Euan Murray (Northampton)9 caps. Age: 27, 6ft 1in, 18st 12lbs
Just six starts for his club. May be a little undercooked, but at least he will be fresh.
4 Nathan Hines (Perpignan)48 caps. Age: 31, 6ft 7in, 18st 8lbs
Has adopted the Grizzly Adams look and is about as much fun to play against as a bear with a sore head.
5 James Hamilton (Leicester)13 caps. Age: 25, 6ft 8in, 19st 12lbs
Short of game time. Just four starts for club this season.
6 Jason White (Sale)63 caps. Age: 29, 6ft 5in, 18st 6lbs
His ability to stop French runners on, or behind the gain line will be vital.
7 John Barclay (Glagsow)1 cap. Age: 21, 6ft 3in, 16st 8lbs
Baby of the XV but most consistent player in Scotland. Ability to win ball on the ground will be priceless.
8 Dave Callam (Edinburgh)9 caps. Age: 24, 6ft 4in, 16st 10lbs
A surprise inclusion but was playing well before injury. Out for five weeks.
SUBSTITUTESFergus Thomson (Glasgow)3 caps. Age: 24, 6ft 0in, 16st 5lbs
Gavin Kerr (Edinburgh)47 caps. Age: 30, 6ft 2in, 17st 9lbs
Scott MacLeod (Scarlets)14 caps. Age: 28, 6ft 6in, 17st 5lbs
Kelly Brown (Glasgow)19 caps. Age: 25, 6ft 4in, 17st 2lbs
Chris Cusiter (Perpignan)36 caps. Age: 25, 5ft 10in, 13st 1lb
Chris Paterson (Gloucester)81 caps. Age: 29, 6ft 0in, 12st 6lbs
Hugo Southwell (Edinburgh)36 caps. Age: 27, 6ft 2in, 15st 2lbs
FRANCE TEAM15 Cedric Heymans (Toulouse)37 caps. Age: 29, 5ft 10in, 15st 1lb
A winger by trade, but at full-back when France lost to Argentina in the World Cup opener.
14 Vincent Clerc (Toulouse) 28 caps. Age: 26, 5ft 9in, 14st
Late score stopped an Irish Grand Slam last year.
13 David Marty (Perpignan)19 caps. Age 25, 5ft 11in, 14st
Late replacement for Florian Fritz. Eight tries from 19 caps.
12 Damien Traille (Biarritz)58 caps. Age: 31, 6ft 4in, 16st 1lb
The most experienced player left standing after the recent cull.
11 Julien Malzieu (Clermont Auvergne)0 caps. Age: 24, 6ft 4in, 15st
Big, fast and on fire this year.
10 Francois Trinh-Duc (Montpellier)0 caps. Age: 21, 6ft 0in, 13st 5lbs
Gets his exotic looks and name from a Vietmanese grandfather but the skills are all his own. His kicking is suspect.
9 Jean-Baptiste Elissalde (Toulouse)30 caps. Age: 30, 5ft 8in, 12st 4lbs
His goal-kicking will be vital. Father and grandfather played for France.
1 Lionel Faure (Sale)0 caps. Age: 30, 6ft 1in, 18st
Debut at 30. Skiing fanatic so snow will suit him.
2 William Servat (Toulouse)16 caps. Age: 29, 5ft 11in, 16st 4lbs
Played in win over Scotland in 2005.
3 Julien Brugnaut (Dax) 0 caps. Age: 26, 6ft 1in, 18st 12lbs
Obviously caught the eye of his club coach before Marc Lievremont took France post.
4 Lionel Nallet (Castres)32 caps. Age: 31, 6ft 5in, 18st 3lbs
His captaincy was a major surprise. Axed for World Cup semi v England.
5 Loic Jacquet (Clermont Auvergne)2 caps. Age: 22, 6ft 6in, 17st 1lbs
Captained victorious French U21 side coached by Lievremont.
6 Fulgence Ouedraogo (Montpellier)1 cap. Age: 21, 6ft 2in, 14st 11lbs
Won 2006 U21 world title. One cap, in 61-10 defeat to New Zealand.
7 Thierry Dusautoir (Toulouse)10 caps. Age: 26, 6ft 1in, 14st 13lbs
Made an astonishing 38 tackles against All Blacks at World Cup.
8 Elvis Vermeulen (Clermont Auvergne)8 caps. Age: 28, 6ft 2in, 16st 0lbs
Has big shoes to fill (no, not blue suede ones) after Chabal was dropped. His try, versus Scotland last
year, won title.
SUBSTITUTESNicolas Mas (Perpignan)14 caps. Age: 27, 5ft 11in, 17st 5lbs
Dimitri Szarewski (Stade Francais)22 caps. Age: 24, 5ft 11in, 15st 10lbs
Arnaud Mela (Albi)0 caps. Age: 27, 6ft 6in, 18st 2lbs
Julien Bonnaire (Bourgoin)37 caps. Age: 29, 6ft 4in, 15st 11lbs
Morgan Parra (Bourgoin)0 caps. Age: 19, 5ft 11in, 12st
David Skrela (Stade Francais)11 caps. Age: 28, 6ft 2in, 14st 10lbs
Aurelien Rougerie (Clermont Auvergne)51 caps. Age: 27, 6ft 3in, 14st 10lbs.
Television: live on BBC 1 from 2.30pm
Radio: Radio Scotland and Radio 5 Live sports extra
Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)
The full article contains 2371 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
